Annual plans!
The summer vacations are over, the fourth quarter is approaching: the time for annual planning has come again.
What will be the most important products you will go to market with next year? How will you continue to invest in your brand and what audience will you target? Again this year, the only constant is change. Of course, the marketing target group may differ from the media target group and the latter may be broad, but herein lies a danger.
For convenience, let's look at the target population of Dutch 25-67 year olds. A commonly used one, because with this you target the largest part of the working population. By 2023, according to CBS, this target group will be nearly 10 million people, growing by 500,000 over the past 15 years.
Not very special you might say, but as the target group gets bigger and older, the center of gravity at the top also increases more. You can see this clearly in Chart 1: while 55-67 years was only a 27% share in 2008, in 2023 it will suddenly be 31%. And precisely this group consumes more TV, for example, so that is where the share begins to weigh extra heavily.
GOLD RULE: over 1 mln persons per 10 years of age by gender
Fine mnemonic in media planning: generally speaking, you can say that for every 10-year age group, there are 1 million Dutch people by gender. In other words, the 25 to 35 age category consists of over 2 million people (1 mln male and 1 mln female).
Within this 25-67 age group, the composition of the age groups is changing. You can still see that there are over 1 million people per 10 years per gender, but with that, the center of gravity has now come out within the 55-67 years group with over 3 million people, whereas in 2008 it was the 35-44 years group that was the largest with almost 2.6 million people.
Chart 1. Source: Central Bureau of Statistics.
Leverage
We are all aware of the aging of the Netherlands, but as a marketer it is essential to keep checking your target group and composition frequently. If within a broad target group like 25-67 there is a desire for steering towards a certain age section, it is important to mention this in your media briefing. Without specific steering, the share of 35-44 year olds, for example, has become smaller in the Netherlands as you can see in Chart 1. And not only that: there is a leverage effect: if you have a smaller part of a group and they consume a medium type less, then the reach within such a group declines even more.
We therefore recommend that clients at STROOM , when dealing with a broad target group such as this one, analyze by age groups. Especially with groups that make up a larger share of the buyer group within the broad target group or have a higher purchase value. An example: 35-44 years is 22.5% of the Netherlands and also 22% of the buyer group, but they have perhaps a 2x higher purchase value when they buy something. So that's hugely relevant media-wise, because then you want to hit that very group hard. They don't buy more than average, but they do spend more than average.
"Not all medium types have a proportionate build-up of reach within the age group."
Samantha Catsburg, Managing Director STROOM
Growth in the category
It is also important to consider when it is desirable to grow in an age group relative to the category.
Detergents
If you know that a young target group is important for the category in terms of growth (let's take detergents as an example). And you see that among competitors this group is less noticeable and less strong in share, then as a brand you can focus on that very group.
For example: many detergents target families, but Ariel has started trying to appeal to young people (25-34) as well, so that even before they have a family they have chosen Ariel. Later, you then benefit from the earlier choices when the frequency of washing increases because they have a family.
This knowledge is important in media planning because not all medium types have a proportional build-up of reach across age groups.
Radio
If you deploy a broad mix of stations on radio, this medium type has a reasonably proportional build-up of reach. The 25-34 age group and the 55-67 age group will be less selective than the average in the Netherlands. But it is expected that the reach in the other age groups will remain close to the reach that you also achieve in the broader target group 25-67 years.
Outdoor
With outdoor, we see a similar picture and depending on the digital channels deployed, it is possible for this to spread across all age groups.
Cinema
Voor bioscoop geldt dat van nature de jongere (<24 jaar) en gezinnen doelgroep hier vaker te vinden zijn, waardoor een hoger bereik opgebouwd zal worden dan in de andere leeftijdsgroepen.
TV
TV is het mediumtype waar we de grote verschillen gaan tegenkomen in de jongere leeftijdsgroepen (<44 jaar). Het jongste deel daarvan (specifiek <34 jaar) is minder gewend aan het kijken van lineaire TV in de avonduren. Er wordt wel gekeken naar live uitzendingen van bijvoorbeeld sport en nieuws, maar een groot deel van de programmering wordt uitgesteld gekeken of er wordt gekeken via platformen zonder advertentiemogelijkheden.
This means that when realizing a campaign reach of, say, 77% in the 25-67 age group, this reach is far from being achieved in the age groups under 44. This can be clearly seen below in Chart 2: 78% reach in the broad 25-67 age group means "only" 65% reach in the 25-34 age group.
Chart 2. Source: Campaigns STROOM without specific guidance to young.
There is also good news: from CBS' forecast of the (growing) Dutch population, we see an increasing share of the target group 25-34 years, in contrast to the period before. The aging population continues, but the growth at the bottom is increasing. Where we currently have over 2.4 million people in this target group in 2023, this will grow to 2.5 million by 2032. So this share is rising slowly. Stagnation in growth is expected in the 45-54 age group, which we also see declining in share toward 2032 (21% vs. 24% in 2023). With this change in the share of young people, it remains essential to continue to analyze your target groups in the future. After all, this younger group, with adapted media behavior, will require yet another way to be reached by then.
"Once again this year: the only constant is change"
Samantha Catsburg, Managing Director STROOM